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The 2-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, was marginally higher at 4.819%. U.S. Treasury yields were broadly flat early Friday as traders digested the jump in weekly jobless claims and what this could mean for interest rates. Relief at the auction outcome means traders are now firmly focused — once again — on the interest rate trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Weekly initial jobless claims, released Thursday, hit their highest level since August 2023, coming in at 231,000. It comes after the Bank of England on Thursday held interest rates as expected, but raised expectations of a cut in June.
Persons: , Henry Allen, Treasurys, Dallas, Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England Locations: U.S, Minneapolis
The S & P 500 is about to do something unusual that has typically been followed by strong gains ahead. There have been only been 28 instances in which the S & P 500 has risen over the first two months of the year. The S & P 500 hit record highs in recent weeks, prompting questions about whether it can continue advancing or is due for a correction. With last week's advance, the S & P 500 officially finished 15 of the last 17 completed trading weeks in the green. The S & P 500 went on to finish that year up by a whopping 27.3%.
Persons: what's, Henry Allen, Allen, Madonna Organizations: Carson Group, Deutsche Bank, Bretton Locations: U.S
New York CNN —Blue chip stocks have long been synonymous with stability and reliability. Named for the most valuable poker chips, these stocks supposedly represent the crème de la crème of the corporate world, companies like Disney, General Motors and Verizon. Known for their strong financial foundations, longevity, and a healthy flow of dividends, blue chip stocks have long been the go-to for investors seeking steady returns. Their values have surged so high that they’ve been buoying the broader market even as many blue chips have struggled. The problem is that despite being included in blue chip ETF indexes, companies like Nvidia and Tesla aren’t truly blue chip stocks, George Pearkes, an analyst at Bespoke, told CNN.
Persons: Tesla, , Henry Allen, George Pearkes, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Linda Yaccarino, Evan Spiegel, Jason Citron, Read, Brian Fung, Joe Biden, Frank Pallone Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Disney, General Motors, Verizon, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Investment, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Deutsche Bank, Tesla, Target, Pfizer, Nike, Charter Communications, CNN, Tech, , House Democrats, New, New Hampshire voters, YouMail, House Energy, Commerce Locations: New York, DC, , New Hampshire
Extreme greed is back on Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
That’s all heralded the return of extreme greed to Wall Street. The S&P 500 is up 2.6% and the Dow is 0.6% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both on pace to score their sixth-straight winning sessions. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, which tracks seven indicators of market sentiment in the United States, tipped into “Extreme Greed” this week, marking a stunning turnaround from just a few months ago, when the index was in Extreme Fear territory. The idea of a soft landing (when inflation rates ease and the economy avoids recession) is likely playing a big part.
Persons: we’re, , Lydia Boussour, , Christopher Waller, Bill Gates, Henry Allen, Allen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Gross, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Fed, ” Financial, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech Locations: New York, United States
There’s plenty for investors to celebrate right now, but a look under the hood reveals quite a bit of decay. But it’s largely Big Tech that’s driving markets higher, and that concentration of gains in so few stocks carries inherent risk. But investors are adjusting expectations: Investors eventually get used to strong data, and come to expect it. “It’s hard for data to keep surprising in the same direction, since investors simply adjust their expectations,” said Allen. Just one month ago, more than 75% of investors thought the central bank would cut rates at their March meeting.
Persons: Bell, Debbie Downer, Wall, Dow, Germany’s DAX, Henry Allen, , Allen, Christopher Waller, That’s, Bill Gates, Larry Fink, Chris Isidore, “ I’m, Scott Kirby, they’ve, ” Kirby, Boeing Max, Max, Kirby, “ We’re, Samantha Delouya, Amy Reinhard, Netflix’s, , we’ve Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Investment, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, University of, National Association of Business Economics, University of Michigan, Fed, ” Financial, BlackRock, Boeing United Airlines, Boeing, United, CNBC, Alaska Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, Refinitiv, Max, FAA, Netflix Locations: New York, Europe
Wall Street's outlook on Fed rate cuts is setting the stage for a "lose-lose situation," says Deutsche Bank macroeconomic strategist Henry Allen. Indeed, the last four times we've seen rate cuts that fast, it's been because of the most recent four U.S. recessions," he wrote. To be sure, rapid rate cuts without a preceding recession isn't an impossible scenario, but that doesn't mean it's likely either, Allen noted. Paul Volcker's chairmanship of the Fed in the 1980s, for example, saw steep rate cuts, although that followed a period of extremely restrictive monetary policy. "[It's] hard to see how both rate markets and risk markets can both continue to thrive as they have recently," Stanley said.
Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Paul Volcker's, Allen isn't, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Stocks, Deutsche Bank's Allen Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Markets, Federal, Traders, Santander U.S, Deutsche Locations: U.S, Vietnam
Investors who held a balanced portfolio and just let it ride through November are about to be handsomely rewarded: The 60/40 portfolio is cruising to its best month in three years. That's just short of the 7.5% advance in November 2020, when progress on Covid vaccines heralded an economic reopening. AOR YTD line YTD performance for iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF (AOR) First, bond yields cooled substantially in November. Bond yields decline when bond prices rise, so cooling rates have lifted prices for fixed income allocations. A recovery in both asset classes has since lifted the AOR to a total return of 10.8% for 2023, showing that staying the course can pay off.
Persons: That's, Henry Allen, they've, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Fed, ECB Locations: Wednesday's
The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.82%, 2 basis points lower. U.S. Treasury yields continued to slip Friday as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign could finally be over. The producer price index, released Wednesday, showed a 0.5% decline in October — whereas economists had expected a slight increase. Earlier this week, October's consumer price index reading also came in lower than forecast. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, fell to a two-year low of 4% on an annual basis.
Persons: Henry Allen Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Deutsche Locations: U.S, U.S . Federal
Valerie Plesch| Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wholesale prices in October, as measured by the producer price index, fell 0.5% for the month against the expected 0.1% increase. And that, to put it mildly, "may be at least a tad optimistic," Cox wrote. Expectations of a rate cut forced down Treasury yields Tuesday (though they rose again yesterday).
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Jeff Cox, Cox, Quincy Krosby, Henry Allen, Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Major, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury, LPL, Deutsche Bank, Fed Locations: Washington , DC, Major U.S
Valerie Plesch | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wholesale prices in October, as measured by the producer price index, fell 0.5% for the month against the expected 0.1% increase. And that, to put it mildly, "may be at least a tad optimistic," Cox wrote. Expectations of a rate cut forced down Treasury yields Tuesday (though they rose again yesterday).
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Jeff Cox, Cox, Quincy Krosby, Henry Allen, Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Major, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury, LPL, Deutsche Bank, Fed Locations: Washington , DC, Major U.S
Stocks had their worst month of 2023 in September. These four charts sum up a rough month for the market. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The end of the third quarter does tend to be a miserable time for stocks – leading to traders coining the term "September Effect". Higher benchmark oil prices tend to be bad news for inflation gauges, because they have the knock-on effect of driving up the cost of everyday products – especially gasoline.
Persons: Stocks, , Tesla, Henry Allen, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Big Tech, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Traders, West Texas
The Federal Reserve hiked rates in July, and it could be the final rate hike of the cycle. But while the latest rate hike was all but certain, there are still plenty of questions about what lies ahead. In a note from Wednesday evening, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that Powell made it clear any further hikes will depend on inflation data. But Bank of America analysts led by US economist Michael Gapen remain unconvinced that the rate hike cycle is truly over. As for equities, Wall Street widely expected this week's rate hike, so there are no major changes to their second-half investing recommendations.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Henry Allen, shouldn't, Allen, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Powell, Hatzius, Gurpreet Gill, Gill, Peter Hooper, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Goldman's Gill, America's Gapen, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson Organizations: Federal, shouldn't, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Bank of America, Bank, America's Locations: Wall
Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy is bearish on stocks over the next few quarters. Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers, doesn't see the Federal Reserve succeeding in its goal to bring inflation back down to its long-term target of 2%. That doesn't mean, however, that the Federal Reserve will remain committed to reining in inflation, like they've pledged. Investors "are not accounting for the earnings hit that we will get from reduced demand," Peterffy told Insider on Friday. Rallies have been continually stymied by realizations that the Fed is going to have to raise interest rates higher than investors had originally expected.
Today we're looking at what Deutsche Bank analysts say is a deeply underappreciated risk to markets, one that threatens to produce an era of negative returns. According to Deutsche Bank analysts writing in a note on Monday, a 70s-style dynamic of high inflation and low growth is a big underappreciated risk in markets right now. First, this sort of thing can become a self-fulfilling cycle, wherein a period of difficult inflation like we're in now leads to further expectations for high inflation. What are the risks that the US economy sees a period of low growth and high inflation in coming years? Wall Street is underestimating these 12 stocks, according to Goldman Sachs.
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